Fishing in Troubled Waters

The Russia - Georgia conflict is attracting world attention. I had never heard of either Abkhazia or South Ossetia. (My spell-checker hasn't either. Is there also a North Ossetia? What about the rest of Ossetia? Ponderous questions.) In any case, these republics or countries or principalities or provinces or parishes, whatever, attempted to break away from Georgia with Russian support. Unwisely the Georgians moved in to prevent the breakaway only to have Vladimir Putin send in his troops to destroy the Georgian armed capability.

Into this mess the neo-cons in Washington stick in their paddle, warning the Russians to back off but Putin is having none of it, he'll fight if necessary. Georgia, an Asian country, wants to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, with American support. NATO was originally formed to defend western Europe from Soviet encroachment but with the Soviet Union collapsing from its own weight in 1989, NATO seemed redundant. But it didn't go away. It morphed into an aggressive force designed to encircle Russia and limit its hegemony.

We can't blame countries like Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic republics and others from seeking protection from the Russian bear, under whom they've suffered. But they're playing a dangerous game; Putin will probably show the American threat to be meaningless in light of his resolve, leaving those poor republics to reap the whirlwind. Reportedly, Condoleezza Rice, front woman for the Bushies, is feeling uncomfortable.

So far, this standoff is nothing like the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Krushchev turned his ships around and dismantled the missiles and it was seen as a Kennedy victory. What we didn't know was that the Americans removed their missiles from Turkey as a quid pro quo; we only found out years later. Most Americans still don't know. Diplomacy and cool heads prevailed. Let's hope cool heads prevail in 2008. With the neo-cons, however, you never know.